Simulations Plus acquired by Altaris: fairness opinion by Morgan Stanley
Deal terms
Implied value per share by method vs. $18.50 offer
Ranges as disclosed in the banker’s summary of analyses; the red line marks the per-share consideration.
Opinion of Morgan Stanley to the target board
Discounted cash flow assumptions
Unlevered free cash flows and terminal value discounted using mid-year convention to present values as of April 30, 2026; implied aggregate value adjusted by adding net cash as of April 30, 2026.
Selected public companies (6)
Certara, Inc. · Definitive Healthcare Corp. · Doximity, Inc. · GoodRx Holdings, Inc. · OptimizeRx Corporation · Veeva Systems Inc.
| Multiple | Peer low | Peer median | Peer high | Range applied | Implied per share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AV / 2026 NTM Adj. EBITDA | — | — | — | 2.3x–11.8x | $5.40–$17.90 |
Selected precedent transactions (14)
| Date | Target | Acquirer | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | Medidata Solutions, Inc. | Dassault Systemes SA | 31.0x AV / NTM EBITDA |
| — | RealPage, Inc. | Thoma Bravo, L.P. | 29.3x AV / NTM EBITDA |
| — | Stamps.com Inc. | Thoma Bravo, L.P. | 26.6x AV / NTM EBITDA |
| — | Talkspace, Inc. | Universal Health Services, Inc. | 26.0x AV / NTM EBITDA |
| — | Inovalon Holdings, Inc. | Nordic Capital; Insight Partners | 25.0x AV / NTM EBITDA |
| — | Model N, Inc. | Vista Equity Partners | 24.5x AV / NTM EBITDA |
| — | IHS Markit Ltd. | S&P Global Inc. | 22.5x AV / NTM EBITDA |
| — | EMIS Group plc | Optum; UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | 21.5x AV / NTM EBITDA |
| — | NIC Inc. | Tyler Technologies, Inc. | 18.3x AV / NTM EBITDA |
| — | Instructure Holdings, Inc. | KKR & Co. Inc.; Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC | 16.9x AV / NTM EBITDA |
| — | Cerner Corporation | Oracle Corporation | 14.4x AV / NTM EBITDA |
| — | Nextgen Healthcare, Inc. | Thoma Bravo, L.P. | 13.4x AV / NTM EBITDA |
| — | CDK Global, Inc. | Brookfield Business Partners L.P. | 12.0x AV / NTM EBITDA |
| — | Integral Ad Science Holding Corp. | Novacap Management, Inc. | 8.2x AV / NTM EBITDA |
| Multiple | Low | Median | High | Range applied | Implied per share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AV / NTM Adj. EBITDA | 8.2x | — | 31.0x | 8.2x–31.0x | $13.20–$42.00 |
Other analyses
| Analysis | Summary | Implied per share |
|---|---|---|
| Historical Trading Range (52-week period ended June 15, 2026) | Reference only; 52-week trading range of Company Common Shares | $11.09–$21.01 |
| Analyst Share Price Targets | Undiscounted analyst price targets of $16.00-$31.00; discounted one year at an estimated 10.4% cost of equity | $14.50–$28.10 |
| Selected Precedent Transaction Premiums | Applied representative premium range of 10%-67% to the 1-day spot closing price of $16.37 on June 15, 2026 | $18.05–$27.30 |
Approximately $11 million total; approximately $2 million earned upon delivery of the opinion, remainder contingent upon consummation of the Merger. Morgan Stanley and affiliates held an aggregate interest of between 3% and 4% of Company Common Shares as of June 15, 2026; no financial advisory or financing services provided to the Company, Parent or Altaris Related Entities in the prior two years.
Management projections
| Projection year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $93.0M | $107M | $123M | $138M | $153M | 13.3% |
| Revenue growth | 15.5% | 15.1% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 10.9% | |
| EBITDA | $29.0M | $38.0M | $49.0M | $55.0M | $61.0M | 20.4% |
| EBITDA growth | 28.9% | 31.0% | 28.9% | 12.2% | 10.9% | |
| EBITDA margin | 31% | 36% | 40% | 40% | 40% | |
| Implied EV / EBITDA | 12.9x | 9.9x | 7.7x | 6.8x | 6.1x |
Year-1 growth is against LTM at announcement ($80.5M revenue, $22.5M EBITDA); later years are year over year.
Company management prepared risk-adjusted standalone Financial Projections for fiscal years 2026 through 2034 (each ending August 31), prepared as of March 25, 2026 and approved by the Board for Morgan Stanley's use. Revenue grows from $81M in FY2026E to $183M in FY2034E; Adjusted EBITDA (unburdened by SBC) from $22M to $75M; unlevered free cash flow from $9M to $41M. Projections assume continued cloud platform rollout, price increases, cross-sell expansion, gross margin expansion and SG&A leverage, and exclude future acquisitions.
Process notes
Other Digital / HealthTech fairness opinions
- TruBridge / Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Health 2026 · 8.1x EV/EBITDA
- Forian / Management-Led Consortium 2026 · 85.0x EV/EBITDA
- Talkspace / Universal Health Services 2026 · 23.9x EV/EBITDA
- Streamline Health / MDaudit 2025
- iCAD / RadNet 2025
- Accolade / Transcarent 2025 · 35.5x EV/EBITDA
All Digital / HealthTech opinions → · Morgan Stanley opinions