R1 RCM acquired by TowerBrook and CD&R: fairness opinion by Barclays
Deal terms
Implied value per share by method vs. $14.30 offer
Ranges as disclosed in the banker’s summary of analyses; the red line marks the per-share consideration.
Opinion of Barclays to the special committee
Discounted cash flow assumptions
Subtracted estimated net debt of ~$2,130 million as of June 30, 2024; divided by 462.4-472.9 million fully diluted shares as of July 30, 2024 (share count dependent on share price). Included present value of projected tax savings from net operating losses for fiscal years 2025 through 2039.
Selected public companies (12)
HealthEquity, Inc. · Genpact Limited · ExlService Holdings, Inc. · Waystar Holding Corp. · Evolent Health, Inc. · WNS (Holdings) Limited · Progyny, Inc. · Premier, Inc. · Omnicell, Inc. · HealthStream, Inc. · Health Catalyst, Inc. · TruBridge, Inc.
| Multiple | Peer low | Peer median | Peer high | Range applied | Implied per share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV / CY2024E Adjusted EBITDA | 5.9x | 13.5x | 17.4x | 12.0x–14.0x | $12.27–$14.95 |
| EV / CY2025E Adjusted EBITDA | 6.1x | 10.8x | 14.7x | 11.0x–13.0x | $13.42–$16.54 |
Selected precedent transactions (14)
| Date | Target | Acquirer | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09 | NextGen Healthcare, Inc. | Thoma Bravo, L.P. | 14.5x EV/LTM EBITDA |
| 2022-06 | Convey Health Solutions Holdings, Inc. | TPG Inc. | 15.7x EV/LTM EBITDA |
| 2022-03 | Ensemble Health Partners | Berkshire Partners LLC / Warburg Pincus LLC / Bon Secours Mercy Health | 18.7x EV/LTM EBITDA |
| 2021-12 | Cerner Corporation | Oracle Corporation | 15.4x EV/LTM EBITDA |
| 2021-10 | TransUnion Healthcare, Inc. | nThrive, Inc. | 20.3x EV/LTM EBITDA |
| 2021-08 | Inovalon Holdings, Inc. | Nordic Capital Epsilon SCA, SICAV-RAIF | 29.0x EV/LTM EBITDA |
| 2021-01 | Change Healthcare Inc. | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | 14.1x EV/LTM EBITDA |
| 2020-12 | HMS Holdings Corp. | Gainwell Technologies LLC | 21.1x EV/LTM EBITDA |
| 2018-11 | athenahealth, Inc. | Elliott Management Corporation / Veritas Capital Fund Management, L.L.C. | 14.9x EV/LTM EBITDA |
| 2018-06 | Cotiviti Holdings, Inc. | Verscend Technologies, Inc. | 17.9x EV/LTM EBITDA |
| 2018-03 | ABILITY Network Inc. | Inovalon Holdings, Inc. | 16.6x EV/LTM EBITDA |
| 2018-02 | Intermedix Corporation | R1 RCM Inc. | 9.6x EV/LTM EBITDA |
| 2016-08 | Press Ganey Holdings, Inc. | EQT Holdings AB | 18.2x EV/LTM EBITDA |
| 2015-11 | MedAssets, Inc. | Pamplona Capital Management LLC | 11.5x EV/LTM EBITDA |
| Multiple | Low | Median | High | Range applied | Implied per share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV / LTM EBITDA (applied to Normalized Adjusted EBITDA of ~$658mm for LTM ended 6/30/2024) | 9.6x | 16.2x | 29.0x | 11.5x–15.5x | $11.66–$17.02 |
Other analyses
| Analysis | Summary | Implied per share |
|---|---|---|
| Historical Share Price Analysis | Closing price of Common Stock from February 24, 2023 to February 23, 2024 (last trading day prior to New Mountain's Amendment No. 3 to Schedule 13D) ranged from $9.11 to $18.49 per share. Reference only. | $9.11–$18.49 |
| Equity Research Price Targets Analysis | Reviewed price targets from sixteen equity research firms; range as of February 26, 2024 was $12.00-$20.00 per share and as of July 30, 2024 was $14.00-$20.00 per share. Reference only. | $12.00–$20.00 |
| Transaction Premium Analysis - Cash-only Deals | 144 cash-only US deals over last 10 years with target EV of $5-15 billion; premiums to undisturbed price: 25th percentile 23.6%, mean 40.1%, median 32.1%, 75th percentile 53.4%. Applied 23.6%-53.4% to the undisturbed closing price on February 23, 2024. | $13.72–$17.03 |
| Transaction Premium Analysis - Sponsor LBO Deals | 57 cash-only deals with financial sponsor acquirers; premiums: 25th percentile 19.9%, mean 34.3%, median 27.1%, 75th percentile 47.9%. Applied 19.9%-47.9% to the undisturbed closing price on February 23, 2024. | $13.31–$16.41 |
$250,000 retainer fee payable on execution of engagement letter (March 28, 2024) and $7.5 million opinion fee payable on delivery of the opinion (not contingent on the conclusion of the opinion or consummation). Remaining compensation payable on completion of the transaction, against which the retainer and opinion fees are credited; total compensation approximately $38 million as of the opinion date. From January 1, 2021 to the opinion date Barclays received approximately $17.0 million in investment banking fees from the Company, $55.7 million from CD&R and affiliates, $22.1 million from TowerBrook and affiliates and $11.7 million from Ascension and affiliates.
Management projections
| Projection year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.9B | $3.1B | $3.4B | $3.7B | $4.0B | 8.0% |
| Revenue growth | 9.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | |
| EBITDA | $766M | $874M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.3B | 14.2% |
| EBITDA growth | 16.9% | 14.1% | 14.5% | 10.8% | 17.3% | |
| EBITDA margin | 26% | 28% | 30% | 30% | 33% | |
| Implied EV / EBITDA | 11.6x | 10.2x | 8.9x | 8.0x | 6.8x |
Year-1 growth is against LTM at announcement ($2.7B revenue, $655M EBITDA); later years are year over year.
Management prepared several sets of standalone projections for FY2024-FY2030: the April 5 Projections (with May 16 Unlevered Free Cash Flows), the July 16 Projections and the July 28 Projections. The July 28 Projections, which reflect the impact of the Ascension Health data breach, show total revenue of $2,564 million in 2024E growing to $4,261 million in 2030E and Adjusted EBITDA of $570 million in 2024E growing to $1,301 million in 2030E, with Normalized Adjusted EBITDA (excluding the Ascension breach impact) of $655 million in 2024E to $1,301 million in 2030E. The Special Committee directed Qatalyst Partners and Barclays to use the July 28 Projections; Barclays used the July 28 Unlevered Free Cash Flows (SBC as Cash Expense) ($94mm in Q3-Q4 2024E to $611mm in 2030E) while Qatalyst used the SBC Unburdened version ($135mm to $737mm). December 2023 Projections (R1/Acclara consolidated, 2024E-2028E) were not used for valuation.
Process notes
Other Outsourced Services fairness opinions
- Stericycle / Waste Management 2024 · 15.1x EV/EBITDA
- Cross Country Healthcare / Aya Healthcare 2024 · 12.1x EV/EBITDA
- Premier / Patient Square Capital 2025 · 10.9x EV/EBITDA
- ProAssurance / The Doctors 2025 · 12.4x EV/EBITDA
- Cross Country Healthcare / Knox Lane 2026 · 16.3x EV/EBITDA
- Sharps Compliance / Aurora Capital Partners 2022 · 25.2x EV/EBITDA