Fairness opinionsPharmaceutical Services2021

PRA Health Sciences acquired by ICON: fairness opinion by Centerview Partners and BofA Securities and UBS

Announced February 24, 2021 · One-step merger · Cash and stock · DEFM14A filed April 28, 2021
Pharmaceutical Services CRO
Enterprise value
$12B
equity $11B
EV / LTM EBITDA
19.2x
EBITDA $615M · 16% margin
EV / LTM revenue
3.12x
revenue $3.8B
DCF discount rate
7.5%–10.0%
Exit multiple

Deal terms

ConsiderationCash and stock
Price per share$80.00
Premium
Premium basis
StructureOne-step merger
Termination fee$277M (2.5% of equity)
Reverse termination fee$388M
Go-shopNone
Outside dateFebruary 24, 2022

Each share of PRA common stock converted into 0.4125 of one ICON ordinary share plus $80.00 in cash. Implied value of $166.06 per share based on ICON's $208.62 closing price on February 23, 2021 ($165.90 based on the February 22, 2021 closing price of $208.25).

Implied value per share by method vs. $80.00 offer

Selected companies — EV / 2021E EBITDA (SBC-Unburdened) - PRA (BofA Securities) $118.00 – $149.00
Selected companies — EV / 2022E EBITDA (SBC-Unburdened) - PRA (BofA Securities) $124.00 – $161.00
Selected companies — Price / 2021E EPS (SBC/Amort.-Unburdened) - PRA (BofA Securities) $112.00 – $155.00
Selected companies — Price / 2022E EPS (SBC/Amort.-Unburdened) - PRA (BofA Securities) $112.00 – $159.00
Selected companies — EV / 2021E EBITDA (SBC-Unburdened) - ICON (per ICON share) (BofA Securities) $187.00 – $216.00
Selected companies — EV / 2022E EBITDA (SBC-Unburdened) - ICON (per ICON share) (BofA Securities) $187.00 – $219.00
Selected companies — Price / 2021E EPS (SBC/Amort.-Unburdened) - ICON (per ICON share) (BofA Securities) $182.00 – $236.00
Selected companies — Price / 2022E EPS (SBC/Amort.-Unburdened) - ICON (per ICON share) (BofA Securities) $169.00 – $224.00
Precedent transactions — EV / CY2020E EBITDA (SBC-Unburdened) applied to PRA (BofA Securities) $78.00 – $93.00
Precedent transactions — EV / CY2021E EBITDA (SBC-Unburdened) applied to PRA (BofA Securities) $91.00 – $109.00
Discounted cash flow (BofA Securities) $141.00 – $193.00
52-Week Trading Range (PRA) (BofA Securities) $64.14 – $136.53
Wall Street Analysts Price Targets (PRA) (BofA Securities) $100.00 – $132.00
52-Week Trading Range (ICON) (BofA Securities) $115.95 – $220.96
Wall Street Analysts Price Targets (ICON) (BofA Securities) $165.00 – $221.00
Has/Gets Analysis (BofA Securities) $157.00 – $199.00
Selected companies — EV / 2021E Adj. EBITDA (PRA analysis) (UBS) $151.27 – $162.13
Selected companies — EV / 2022E Adj. EBITDA (PRA analysis) (UBS) $140.87 – $150.11
Selected companies — EV / 2021E Adj. EBITDA (ICON analysis; per ICON share) (UBS) $198.71 – $210.19
Selected companies — EV / 2022E Adj. EBITDA (ICON analysis; per ICON share) (UBS) $199.97 – $212.69
Precedent transactions — EV / LTM Adj. EBITDA (UBS) $83.30 – $98.49
Precedent transactions — EV / FY+1 Adj. EBITDA (UBS) $99.29 – $113.15
Discounted cash flow (UBS) $158.94 – $175.53

Ranges as disclosed in the banker’s summary of analyses; the red line marks the per-share consideration.

Opinion of Centerview Partners to the acquirer board

Delivered February 23, 2021 · Fee $30.0M ($25.0M contingent on closing), $5.0M on delivery of the opinion

Discounted cash flow assumptions

Discount rate8.5%–10.0%
BasisPRA weighted average cost of capital
Terminal valuePerpetuity growth
Perpetuity growth2.5%–3.5%
Exit multiple
Projection period2021E-2030E
Projections usedICON-Adjusted PRA Forecasts
Implied value per share$113.00–$165.00

Stand-alone PRA DCF excluding synergies: $113-$165. Including cost synergies only: $130-$191. Including cost and tax synergies: $144-$211. Using PRA management's financial forecasts (same discount/terminal rates): $134-$197. Separate ICON DCF (2021-2030, 8.75%-10% discount rate, 2.5%-3.5% perpetuity growth) implied $178-$239 per ICON ordinary share.

Selected public companies (5)

ICON plc (ICLR) · IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV) · Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) · PPD, Inc. (PPD) · Syneos Health, Inc. (SYNH)

MultiplePeer lowPeer medianPeer highRange appliedImplied per share
EV / 2021E Adjusted EBITDA (PRA peer set)13.8x26.4x 14.0x–19.0x $116.00–$159.00
Price / 2021E Adjusted EPS (PRA peer set)17.4x36.1x 18.0x–26.0x $109.00–$158.00
EV / 2021E Adjusted EBITDA (ICON peer set; implied per ICON share)13.8x26.4x 14.0x–19.0x $170.00–$227.00
Price / 2021E Adjusted EPS (ICON peer set; implied per ICON share)17.4x36.1x 18.0x–26.0x $159.00–$229.00

Selected precedent transactions (10)

DateTargetAcquirerMultiple
2017-07Chiltern International Inc.Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings
2017-06PAREXEL International CorporationPamplona Capital Management LLC
2017-05inVentiv Health, Inc.INC Research, LLC
2016-08inVentiv Health, Inc.Advent International Corp
2016-05IMS Health Holdings, Inc.Quintiles Transnational Holdings Inc.
2014-11Covance Inc.Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings
2013-06PRA Health Sciences, Inc.KKR & Co. Inc.
2011-10PPD, Inc.Carlyle Group Inc.
2011-05Kendle International Inc.INC Research, LLC
2007-07PRA Health Sciences, Inc.Genstar Capital, LLC
MultipleLowMedianHighRange appliedImplied per share
EV / LTM Adjusted EBITDA10.2x12.8x15.1x 10.0x–15.0x $63.00–$100.00

Other analyses

AnalysisSummaryImplied per share
Historical Stock Price Trading Analysis (PRA, 52-week to 2/22/2021)Range of low and high closing prices of PRA common stock over 52 weeks prior to February 22, 2021, compared with Consideration of $165.90.$64.00–$137.00
Analyst Price Target Analysis (PRA)Wall Street research analyst price targets for PRA available on Bloomberg as of February 22, 2021.$105.00–$145.00
Premiums Paid AnalysisPremiums paid in selected transactions since 2010 with transaction value of $5 billion or more having similar stock components; applied a 20%-40% premium range to PRA's February 22, 2021 closing price of $127.30.$153.00–$178.00
Historical Stock Price Trading Analysis (ICON, 52-week)52-week low/high closing prices of ICON ordinary shares prior to February 22, 2021 vs. the $208.25 closing price.$116.00–$221.00
Analyst Price Target Analysis (ICON)Wall Street analyst price targets for ICON ordinary shares as of February 22, 2021 vs. $208.25 closing price.$179.00–$240.00
Illustrative Has/Gets AnalysisCompared ICON's stand-alone equity value to pro forma equity value including Synergies; implied pro forma market value of approximately $11.6 billion or $217.00 per share vs. $11.2 billion or $208.25 per share as of February 22, 2021.$217.00
Illustrative Future Share Price AnalysisIllustrative future value per ICON ordinary share for calendar years 2021-2025, stand-alone vs. pro forma, using NTM P/E multiples of 24.1x (ICON stand-alone), 22.8x (blended) and 20.0x applied to NTM Adjusted EPS estimates.
Relative Value Analysis (implied cash-adjusted exchange ratios)Implied cash-adjusted exchange ratios: Selected Trading Companies (2021E EV/Adj. EBITDA) 0.1572x-0.4660x; Selected Trading Companies (2021E P/Adj. EPS) 0.1269x-0.4890x; DCF exclusive of synergies 0.1368x-0.4768x; DCF cost synergies only 0.2094x-0.6198x; DCF cost and tax synergies 0.2675x-0.7342x, compared to the 0.4125x exchange ratio.

ICON agreed to pay Centerview an aggregate fee of $30 million, $5 million payable upon rendering of the opinion and $25 million contingent upon consummation; plus expense reimbursement and indemnity.

Opinion of BofA Securities to the target board

Delivered February 24, 2021 · Fee $30.0M ($28.0M contingent on closing), $2.0M on delivery of the opinion

Discounted cash flow assumptions

Discount rate7.5%–10.0%
BasisPRA weighted average cost of capital derived using the capital asset pricing model
Terminal valueExit multiple
Perpetuity growth
Exit multiple13.0x–16.5x terminal year EBITDA (SBC-Unburdened)
Projection period2021E-2025E
Projections usedfinancial forecasts by PRA (PRA management)
Implied value per share$141.00–$193.00

Mid-year discounting convention, present value as of December 31, 2020. Separate ICON DCF (2021-2025, 7.25%-9.5% discount rate, 13.0x-17.5x exit multiple) implied $183-$252 per ICON ordinary share.

Selected public companies (6)

IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV) · Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. (CRL) · PPD, Inc. (PPD) · Syneos Health, Inc. (SYNH) · MedPace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) · ICON plc (ICLR)

MultiplePeer lowPeer medianPeer highRange appliedImplied per share
EV / 2021E EBITDA (SBC-Unburdened) - PRA13.7x17.2x24.2x 14.0x–17.5x $118.00–$149.00
EV / 2022E EBITDA (SBC-Unburdened) - PRA12.4x15.7x20.2x 12.5x–16.0x $124.00–$161.00
Price / 2021E EPS (SBC/Amort.-Unburdened) - PRA17.2x25.9x32.1x 18.0x–25.0x $112.00–$155.00
Price / 2022E EPS (SBC/Amort.-Unburdened) - PRA15.1x22.2x27.3x 15.5x–22.0x $112.00–$159.00
EV / 2021E EBITDA (SBC-Unburdened) - ICON (per ICON share)17.2x 15.5x–18.0x $187.00–$216.00
EV / 2022E EBITDA (SBC-Unburdened) - ICON (per ICON share)15.6x 14.0x–16.5x $187.00–$219.00
Price / 2021E EPS (SBC/Amort.-Unburdened) - ICON (per ICON share)24.9x 20.0x–26.0x $182.00–$236.00
Price / 2022E EPS (SBC/Amort.-Unburdened) - ICON (per ICON share)21.5x 17.0x–22.5x $169.00–$224.00

Selected precedent transactions (5)

DateTargetAcquirerMultiple
2017-06-20Parexel International CorporationPamplona Capital Management, LLP
2017-05-10InVentiv Health, Inc.INC Research Holdings, Inc.
2017-04-26PPD, Inc.H&F, ADIA, GIC and The Carlyle Group
2016-05-03Quintiles Transnational Holdings Inc.Ims Health Holdings, Inc.
2014-11-03CovanceLaboratory Corporation of America Holdings
MultipleLowMedianHighRange appliedImplied per share
EV / LTM EBITDA (SBC-Unburdened)11.5x12.4x14.5x
EV / FY EBITDA (SBC-Unburdened)10.8x12.1x13.5x
EV / FY+1 EBITDA (SBC-Unburdened)9.8x10.6x12.7x
EV / CY2020E EBITDA (SBC-Unburdened) applied to PRA 12.0x–14.0x $78.00–$93.00
EV / CY2021E EBITDA (SBC-Unburdened) applied to PRA 11.0x–13.0x $91.00–$109.00

Other analyses

AnalysisSummaryImplied per share
52-Week Trading Range (PRA)PRA common stock trading range for the 52-week period ended February 23, 2021.$64.14–$136.53
Wall Street Analysts Price Targets (PRA)Publicly available equity research analyst price targets for PRA as of February 23, 2021, discounted by one year at PRA's estimated cost of equity of 9.5%.$100.00–$132.00
52-Week Trading Range (ICON)ICON ordinary shares trading range for the 52-week period ended February 23, 2021.$115.95–$220.96
Wall Street Analysts Price Targets (ICON)Equity research analyst price targets for ICON ordinary shares as of February 23, 2021, discounted by one year at ICON's estimated cost of equity of 8.5%.$165.00–$221.00
Has/Gets AnalysisCompared PRA stand-alone per share equity value reference range of $141-$193 to total implied pro forma value to be received per PRA share in the merger of $157-$199 (pro forma ICON value x 0.4125 plus $80 cash), incorporating present value of Cost Savings and Tax Savings discounted at 7.5%-10.0% with terminal perpetuity growth of 0% for Cost Savings and 0%-3.0% for Tax Savings.$157.00–$199.00

Aggregate fee estimated at approximately $30 million, $2 million payable upon delivery of the opinion and the remainder upon closing. BofA and affiliates derived approximately $4 million in revenues from PRA for corporate/investment banking services from February 1, 2019 through January 31, 2021.

Opinion of UBS to the target board

Delivered February 24, 2021

Discounted cash flow assumptions

Discount rate9.0%–10.0%
BasisUBS estimate of PRA's weighted average cost of capital
Terminal valueExit multiple
Perpetuity growth
Exit multiple15.0x–16.0x FY2025 LTM Adj. EBITDA
Projection period2021E-2025E
Projections usedfinancial forecasts by PRA (PRA management)
Implied value per share$158.94–$175.53

Present value as of December 31, 2020. Separate ICON stand-alone DCF (2021-2025, 9.0%-10.0% discount rate, 15.0x-16.0x terminal multiple) implied $200.16-$218.66 per ICON ordinary share. A pro forma combined company DCF was also performed reflecting synergies of $150 million annual run-rate by end of 2025 and a combined effective tax rate declining to 14% by end of 2024, discounted at 9.0%-10.0% with 15.0x-16.0x terminal multiples, then discounted to December 31, 2020 at a 10.5% cost of equity.

Selected public companies (8)

Pharmaceutical Product Development, Inc. (PPD) · ICON plc (ICLR) · Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) · IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV) · Syneos Health, Inc. (SYNH) · Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. (CRL) · PRA Health Sciences, Inc. (PRAH) · Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings (for reference only) (LH)

MultiplePeer lowPeer medianPeer highRange appliedImplied per share
EV / 2021E Adj. EBITDA (PRA analysis)13.7x17.7x24.2x 16.5x–17.5x $151.27–$162.13
EV / 2022E Adj. EBITDA (PRA analysis)12.4x16.2x20.2x 15.0x–16.0x $140.87–$150.11
EV / 2021E Adj. EBITDA (ICON analysis; per ICON share)13.7x17.2x24.2x 16.5x–17.5x $198.71–$210.19
EV / 2022E Adj. EBITDA (ICON analysis; per ICON share)12.4x15.6x20.2x 15.0x–16.0x $199.97–$212.69

Selected precedent transactions (6)

DateTargetAcquirerMultiple
2017-06-20Parexel International CorporationPamplona Capital Management, LLP12.5x EV / LTM Adj. EBITDA
2017-05-10inVentiv Health, Inc.INC Research Holdings, Inc.12.2x EV / LTM Adj. EBITDA
2017-04-26Pharmaceutical Product Development, Inc.Hellman & Friedman LLC, The Carlyle Group Inc., GIC Private Ltd, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority13.9x EV / LTM Adj. EBITDA
2016-05-03IMS Health Holdings, Inc.Quintiles Transnational Holdings Inc.14.5x EV / LTM Adj. EBITDA
2016-05-03Quintiles Transnational Holdings Inc.IMS Health Holdings, Inc.11.5x EV / LTM Adj. EBITDA
2014-11-03Covance Inc.Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings12.1x EV / LTM Adj. EBITDA
MultipleLowMedianHighRange appliedImplied per share
EV / LTM Adj. EBITDA11.5x12.4x14.5x 12.5x–14.5x $83.30–$98.49
EV / FY+1 Adj. EBITDA10.8x12.1x13.5x 12.0x–13.5x $99.29–$113.15

Other analyses

AnalysisSummaryImplied per share
Pro Forma Combined Company Discounted Cash Flow AnalysisDCF of the combined company using PRA and ICON forecasts adjusted for estimated synergies ($150 million annual run-rate by end of CY2025) and one-time costs to achieve, cash flows July 1, 2021 through December 31, 2025 discounted at 9.0%-10.0%, terminal value based on FY2025 LTM Adj. EBITDA at 15.0x-16.0x multiples, results discounted to December 31, 2020 at a 10.5% cost of equity.
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Management projections

Projection yearYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4CAGR
Revenue$4.1B$4.5B$4.8B$5.2B8.0%
Revenue growth9.3%8.7%7.8%7.4%
EBITDA$723M$818M$910M$1.0B12.0%
EBITDA growth17.6%13.1%11.2%11.5%
EBITDA margin18%18%19%20%
Implied EV / EBITDA16.3x14.4x12.9x11.6x

Year-1 growth is against LTM at announcement ($3.8B revenue, $615M EBITDA); later years are year over year.

Three sets of forecasts were used: PRA management's stand-alone forecasts ("financial forecasts by PRA"), ICON management's forecasts for ICON ("ICON Forecasts"), and ICON management's adjusted forecasts for PRA ("ICON-Adjusted PRA Forecasts"). Centerview used the ICON-Adjusted PRA Forecasts and ICON Forecasts over 2021-2030 for its DCFs; BofA and UBS used the PRA and ICON forecasts over 2021-2025. PRA's LTM Adjusted EBITDA as of December 31, 2020 was $492 million. ICON management projected synergies reaching an annual run-rate of approximately $150 million by the end of CY2025 plus tax savings from a combined effective tax rate declining to 14% by the end of CY2024.

Process notes

Joint proxy statement/prospectus: ICON shareholders voted on a share issuance and PRA stockholders on adoption of the merger agreement. Three fairness opinions were delivered - Centerview Partners to the ICON (acquirer) board on February 23, 2021, and BofA Securities and UBS Securities to the PRA board on February 24, 2021. The PRA termination fee of $277 million represented approximately 2.5% of PRA's equity value at signing, with a separate $100 million expense reimbursement; ICON's reverse termination fee was $388 million with a $120 million expense reimbursement. Outside date February 24, 2022, extendable under certain circumstances to August 24, 2022 or later. Neither BofA nor UBS solicited indications of interest from third parties. UBS's fee was not disclosed in the sliced sections.

Other Pharmaceutical Services fairness opinions

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