Fairness opinionsProfessional Services2010

Pet DRx acquired by VCA: fairness opinion by Roth Capital Partners

Announced November 1, 2010 · One-step merger · All cash · DEF 14C filed October 12, 2010
Professional Services Veterinary
Enterprise value
$61.5M
EV / LTM EBITDA
9.8x
EBITDA $6.3M · 9% margin
EV / LTM revenue
0.87x
revenue $70.3M
DCF discount rate
15.0%–25.0%
Perpetuity growth

Deal terms

ConsiderationAll cash
Price per share$0.34
Premium
Premium basis
StructureOne-step merger
Termination fee
Reverse termination fee
Go-shopNone
Outside date

Opinion of Roth Capital Partners to the target board

Delivered May 24, 2010 · Fee $0.1M ($0.0M contingent on closing), $0.1M on delivery of the opinion

Discounted cash flow assumptions

Discount rate15.0%–25.0%
BasisWACC; computed WACC of 17.6% based on Pet DRx unlevered equity beta, debt/equity ratio, tax rate assumption (NOLs eliminating taxes through 2014), risk free rate of 4.35% (Bloomberg, May 17, 2010), equity risk premium of 12.98% (Ibbotson SBBI 2010) and small stock premium of 6.28% (micro-cap 10th decile)
Terminal valuePerpetuity growth
Perpetuity growth2.0%–4.0%
Exit multiple
Projection period2010-2014
Projections usedFinancial projections prepared by Pet DRx management
Implied value per share

Implied enterprise value range of $29.1 million to $59.8 million, compared to enterprise value in VCA Antech proposal of $41.25 million ($46.8 million including severance/closing costs paid by VCA Antech and assumed negative working capital). Subsequent to the Equity Closing it was discovered Roth used projected EBITDA figures when it intended to use projected EBIT; using EBIT would have yielded an enterprise value range of $19.8 million to $35.7 million.

Selected public companies (6)

CVS Group plc · Heska Corporation · IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. · PetMed Express, Inc. · PetSmart, Inc. · VCA Antech, Inc.

MultiplePeer lowPeer medianPeer highRange appliedImplied per share
EV / LTM Revenue0.5x1.8x3.7x
EV / CY2010E Revenue0.8x1.8x3.6x
EV / LTM EBITDA7.1x9.9x16.9x
EV / CY2010E EBITDA6.7x9.7x15.6x 6.7x–15.6x

Selected precedent transactions (12)

DateTargetAcquirerMultiple
2008-07-01Valley Animal Medical Centern/a1.2x EV / LTM Revenue
2007-11-30Beechwood Veterinary Practice Limitedn/a0.8x EV / LTM Revenue
2007-11-26PetMedics Limitedn/a0.6x EV / LTM Revenue
2007-04-19National Veterinary Associates, Inc.n/a1.1x EV / LTM Revenue
2007-03-30Bay Area Veterinary Specialists, Inc.n/a0.8x EV / LTM Revenue
2007-03-08Healthy Pet Corporationn/a2.9x EV / LTM Revenue
2007-01-15Active Vetcare Ltdn/a2.8x EV / LTM Revenue
2005-12-05Firstvets & White Lion Groupn/a7.2x Equity Value / LTM EBITDA
2005-07-01Pet's Choice, Inc.n/a0.9x EV / LTM Revenue
2004-05-10National PetCare Centers, Inc.n/a0.9x EV / LTM Revenue
2000-03-30VCA Antech, Inc.n/a1.3x EV / LTM Revenue
1999-02-03AAH Management Corpn/a
MultipleLowMedianHighRange appliedImplied per share
EV / LTM Revenue0.6x1.0x2.9x 0.6x–2.9x
EV / LTM EBITDA4.9x7.2x21.3x

Other analyses

AnalysisSummaryImplied per share
Comparable Public Company Analysis - implied enterprise valueUsing CY2010E EBITDA multiples, Roth concluded Pet DRx enterprise value ranged from $16.5 million to $38.5 million (median $23.9 million, mean $25.4 million), versus the VCA Antech offer enterprise value of $41.25 million ($46.8 million including severance/closing costs and assumed negative working capital). Revenue-based values ranged from $32.0 million (LTM min) to $243.8 million (CY2010 max).
Precedent Transaction Analysis - implied enterprise valueApplying LTM revenue multiples from precedent transactions to Pet DRx annualized sales as of March 31, 2010: low 0.6x = $35.6 million, median 1.0x = $64.3 million (also stated as implying $62.9 million), mean 1.3x = $83.4 million, high 2.9x = $182.4 million. Roth viewed this analysis as very imprecise given the lack of fundamental valuation and Pet DRx's negative LTM EBITDA.
Dividend paying capacity and book valueRoth considered dividend paying capacity and book value but deemed them less useful metrics given Pet DRx's operating history and current financial condition.

Roth received a fee of $100,000 from Pet DRx, none of which was contingent upon consummation of the merger; Pet DRx also agreed to indemnify Roth and reimburse expenses. Opinion reviewed with the Board on May 24, 2010 and formally delivered in writing on May 26, 2010.

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Management projections

Projection yearYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4CAGR
Revenue$73.8M$77.5M$81.4M$81.4M3.3%
Revenue growth5.0%5.0%5.0%0.0%
EBITDA$8.2M$10.7M$13.3M$13.3M17.5%
EBITDA growth30.2%30.5%24.3%0.0%
EBITDA margin11%14%16%16%
Implied EV / EBITDA7.5x5.7x4.6x4.6x

Year-1 growth is against LTM at announcement ($70.3M revenue, $6.3M EBITDA); later years are year over year.

Roth used management's financial projections for fiscal years 2010 through 2014 (plus a 2014 terminal year). Revenue was projected to grow from $68.3 million in 2010 to $81.4 million in 2014, with EBIT rising from $2.5 million (3.6% margin) to $10.0 million (12.3% margin) and debt-free net cash flows from $2.2 million to $11.3 million; NOL carryforwards eliminated income taxes through 2014, with a 39% effective rate applied in the terminal year.

Process notes

Information statement (DEF 14C) - stockholder action taken by written consent rather than a vote. Roth Capital was engaged solely to render an independent fairness opinion to the Pet DRx board; the opinion covered holders of common stock other than the "Sellers" under a related stock purchase agreement (the Equity Closing occurred before this filing). The filing discloses a post-closing correction: Roth had inadvertently used projected EBITDA rather than EBIT in its DCF, which would have produced a lower enterprise value range ($19.8-$35.7 million instead of $29.1-$59.8 million). Roth noted the computed 17.6% WACC may be slightly low as it excluded firm-specific bankruptcy/default risk. All valuation conclusions were expressed at the enterprise-value level; no per-share implied ranges were disclosed. VCA Antech was included both as a comparable public company and as a precedent transaction target (its March 2000 acquisition).

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