Fairness opinionsHome-Based Services2014

Gentiva Health Services acquired by Kindred Healthcare Services: fairness opinion by Barclays

Announced October 9, 2014 · One-step merger · Cash and stock · DEFM14A filed December 19, 2014
Home-Based Services Home Health / Hospice
Enterprise value
$1.8B
EV / LTM EBITDA
9.7x
EBITDA $189M · 10% margin
EV / LTM revenue
0.92x
revenue $2.0B
DCF discount rate
9.5%–11.5%
Exit multiple

Deal terms

ConsiderationCash and stock
Price per share$14.50
Premium
Premium basis
StructureOne-step merger
Termination fee$32.5M
Reverse termination fee
Go-shopNone
Outside dateMarch 31, 2015

$14.50 in cash plus 0.257 of a share of Kindred common stock per Gentiva share; exchange ratio agreed October 3, 2014 based on the 10-trading-day VWAP of Kindred common stock, implying $19.50 per Gentiva share ($5.00 of stock value). Based on Kindred's December 15, 2014 closing price, the consideration represented $19.19 per share. Gentiva stockholders expected to own approximately 12% of Kindred after closing.

Implied value per share by method vs. $14.50 offer

Selected companies — EV / Expected 2014 Adjusted EBITDA (Gentiva peers) $14.36 – $19.25
Selected companies — EV / Expected 2015 EBITDA (Gentiva peers) $15.78 – $21.15
Selected companies — EV / Expected 2014 EBITDA (Kindred peers) $18.29 – $27.18
Selected companies — Adjusted EV / Expected 2014 EBITDAR (Kindred peers, rent capitalized at 6.0x) $18.24 – $30.42
Precedent transactions — TV / LTM Adjusted EBITDA (LTM ended June 30, 2014 of $180 million) $14.65 – $21.62
Discounted cash flow $16.14 – $23.80
Historical Share Price Analysis - Gentiva $7.35 – $18.93
Historical Share Price Analysis - Kindred $13.13 – $26.81
Analysis of Equity Research Analyst Price Targets - Gentiva $17.25 – $20.00
Analysis of Equity Research Analyst Price Targets - Kindred $17.00 – $27.00

Ranges as disclosed in the banker’s summary of analyses; the red line marks the per-share consideration.

Opinion of Barclays to the target board

Delivered October 8, 2014 · Fee $14.0M ($12.0M contingent on closing), $2.0M on delivery of the opinion

Discounted cash flow assumptions

Discount rate9.5%–11.5%
BasisWACC for Gentiva derived using the capital asset pricing model
Terminal valueExit multiple
Perpetuity growth
Exit multiple8.0x–9.0x 2018E EBITDA
Projection periodQ3-Q4 2014 and FY2015-FY2018
Projections usedGentiva management business model case
Implied value per share$16.14–$23.80

After-tax unlevered free cash flows calculated from tax-affected EBITDA less capital expenditures and adjusted for working capital changes; net debt as of June 30, 2014 subtracted; shares computed under treasury stock method.

Selected public companies (10)

Amedisys Inc. · Chemed Corp. · Almost Family Inc. · Addus HomeCare Corp. · LHC Group, Inc. · The Ensign Group, Inc. · Select Medical Holdings Corp. · Skilled Healthcare Group, Inc. · HealthSouth Corp. · Kindred Healthcare, Inc. (KND)

MultiplePeer lowPeer medianPeer highRange appliedImplied per share
EV / Expected 2014 Adjusted EBITDA (Gentiva peers)8.6x9.1x12.9x 8.5x–9.5x $14.36–$19.25
EV / Expected 2015 EBITDA (Gentiva peers)7.4x8.8x11.1x 8.0x–9.0x $15.78–$21.15
EV / Expected 2014 EBITDA (Kindred peers)6.2x8.5x 7.0x–8.5x $18.29–$27.18
Adjusted EV / Expected 2014 EBITDAR (Kindred peers, rent capitalized at 6.0x)6.6x8.0x 6.5x–8.0x $18.24–$30.42

Selected precedent transactions (13)

DateTargetAcquirerMultiple
2006-01The Healthfield GroupGentiva9.7x TV / LTM EBITDA
2010-05Odyssey HealthCareGentiva11.5x TV / LTM EBITDA
2011-04Regency HospiceCuro Health Services9.5x TV / LTM EBITDA
2011-08Professional HealthCareKindred Healthcare9.0x TV / LTM EBITDA
2011-11SouthernCareKohlberg & Company9.5x TV / LTM EBITDA
2011-11SeniorBridge Family CompaniesHumana10.0x TV / LTM EBITDA
2012-06Community HospiceCuro Health Services10.8x TV / LTM EBITDA
2012-08IntegraCare HoldingsKindred Healthcare8.3x TV / LTM EBITDA
2012-10Celtic HealthcareThe Washington Post9.3x TV / LTM EBITDA
2013-01Guardian Healthcare GroupEnvision Healthcare9.1x TV / LTM EBITDA
2013-09Harden HealthcareGentiva Health Services, Inc.11.1x TV / LTM EBITDA
2013-11SunCrest HealthcareAlmost Family9.9x TV / LTM EBITDA
2014-04Great Lakes CaringWellspring Capital8.5x TV / LTM EBITDA
MultipleLowMedianHighRange appliedImplied per share
TV / LTM Adjusted EBITDA (LTM ended June 30, 2014 of $180 million)8.3x9.5x11.5x 9.0x–10.5x $14.65–$21.62

Other analyses

AnalysisSummaryImplied per share
Historical Share Price Analysis - GentivaIntra-day trading prices of Gentiva common stock ranged from $7.35 to $13.85 during the 52 weeks preceding Kindred's public offer (May 14, 2013 to May 14, 2014), and from $13.30 to $18.93 from May 15, 2014 to October 7, 2014.$7.35–$18.93
Historical Share Price Analysis - KindredIntra-day trading prices of Kindred common stock ranged from $13.13 to $26.81 from October 7, 2013 to October 7, 2014, and $18.80 to $26.81 from May 15, 2014 to October 7, 2014; Kindred priced a nine million share public offering at $23.75 on June 16, 2014.$13.13–$26.81
Analysis of Equity Research Analyst Price Targets - GentivaAnalyst price targets for Gentiva ranged from $7.00 to $11.00 before the May 15, 2014 tender offer and from $17.25 to $20.00 after the tender offer, in line with the $19.50 implied merger consideration.$17.25–$20.00
Analysis of Equity Research Analyst Price Targets - KindredPost-announcement Kindred analyst price targets implied an equity value range of $17.00 to $27.00 per Kindred share (with an outlier at $42.00), versus Kindred's October 7, 2014 closing price of $19.96.$17.00–$27.00
Pro Forma Merger AnalysisBarclays reviewed the capitalization of the pro forma combined company and the pro forma impact of the transaction on current and future financial performance and credit profile, including projected 2015 and 2016 combined company EPS, taking into account expected synergies estimated by Kindred management.

$12 million payable on completion of the merger; $2 million paid upon delivery of the Barclays opinion. Barclays is a lender to both companies' credit facilities and administrative agent for Gentiva; prior financing roles for both Gentiva (Harden acquisition, $925 million senior secured credit facilities) and Kindred ($1,750 million senior secured credit facilities, $500 million senior secured notes, interest rate swap counterparty).

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Management projections

Projection yearYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4CAGR
Revenue$2.0B$2.1B$2.1B$2.2B2.6%
Revenue growth2.1%2.1%2.4%3.3%
EBITDA$208M$221M$236M$258M7.4%
EBITDA growth10.1%6.3%6.8%9.3%
EBITDA margin10%11%11%12%
Implied EV / EBITDA8.8x8.3x7.8x7.1x

Year-1 growth is against LTM at announcement ($2.0B revenue, $189M EBITDA); later years are year over year.

Barclays relied on the Gentiva management "business model case" projections covering the third and fourth quarters of fiscal 2014 through fiscal 2018. Gentiva's expected 2014 Adjusted EBITDA (based on actual results plus the business model case) was $189 million and expected 2015 EBITDA was $208 million; LTM Adjusted EBITDA for the twelve months ended June 30, 2014 was $180 million. Kindred figures used in the comparable company analysis (2014E EBITDA of $382 million and 2014E EBITDAR of $712 million) were based on Wall Street research estimates, and expected synergies were based on Kindred management estimates.

Process notes

Cash-and-stock merger following Kindred's earlier hostile public offer/tender offer commenced May 15, 2014; consideration was compared to the $19.50 implied value based on Kindred's 10-day VWAP through October 3, 2014. Barclays was engaged as "one of" Gentiva's financial advisors but was the only advisor that delivered a fairness opinion described in the filing (oral opinion October 8, 2014, confirmed in writing). Stockholders holding approximately 15.4% of Gentiva shares signed a voting and support agreement. Kindred stockholder approval was not required. Negotiation history: Kindred initially proposed a $45 million termination fee and Gentiva proposed $25 million, settling at $32.5 million; Gentiva obtained specific performance rights rather than only a reverse termination fee.

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