Fairness opinionsMedical Transportation2017

Air Methods acquired by American Securities: fairness opinion by Centerview Partners

Announced March 14, 2017 · Tender offer · All cash · SC 14D9 filed March 23, 2017
Medical Transportation Ambulance: Air Sponsor: American Securities LLC / American Securities Management L.P.
Enterprise value
$2.5B
EV / LTM EBITDA
7.6x
EBITDA $324M · 26% margin
EV / LTM revenue
1.96x
revenue $1.3B
DCF discount rate
9.5%–10.5%
Perpetuity growth

Deal terms

ConsiderationAll cash
Price per share$43.00
Premium
Premium basis
StructureTender offer
Termination fee$51.6M
Reverse termination fee$95.3M
Go-shopNone
Outside date

Implied value per share by method vs. $43.00 offer

Precedent transactions — EV / LTM Adjusted EBITDA (applied to FY2016 EBITDA) $38.50 – $57.50
Discounted cash flow $36.20 – $50.20
Historical trading prices (52-week period ended March 13, 2017) $24.75 – $43.10
Wall Street research analyst price targets $39.00 – $50.00

Ranges as disclosed in the banker’s summary of analyses; the red line marks the per-share consideration.

Opinion of Centerview Partners to the target board

Delivered March 14, 2017 · Fee $17.4M ($17.4M contingent on closing)

Discounted cash flow assumptions

Discount rate9.5%–10.5%
BasisCenterview's analysis of the Company's weighted average cost of capital (cost of equity derived via CAPM; WACC weighting cost of equity and after-tax cost of long-term debt by target capital structure)
Terminal valuePerpetuity growth
Perpetuity growth1.0%–2.5%
Exit multiple
Projection period2017E-2021E
Projections usedForecasts prepared by Company management (Internal Data)
Implied value per share$36.20–$50.20

Discounted to present value as of December 31, 2016; fully-taxed unlevered free cash flows for January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2021; book value of net debt as of December 31, 2016 subtracted; divided by fully diluted shares based on Internal Data.

Selected precedent transactions (6)

DateTargetAcquirerMultiple
2015-07Rural/Metro CorporationEnvision Healthcare Corporation
2015-03Air Medical Group Holdings, Inc.KKR & Co. L.P.
2011-06OF Air Holdings Corporation (parent corporation of Omniflight Helicopters, Inc.)Air Methods Corporation
2011-03Rural/Metro CorporationWarburg Pincus LLC
2011-02Emergency Medical Services CorporationClayton, Dubilier & Rice, LLC
2010-08Air Medical Group Holdings, Inc.Bain Capital, LP
MultipleLowMedianHighRange appliedImplied per share
EV / LTM Adjusted EBITDA (applied to FY2016 EBITDA)8.0x10.7x 8.0x–10.5x $38.50–$57.50

Other analyses

AnalysisSummaryImplied per share
Historical trading prices (52-week period ended March 13, 2017)Low and high closing prices for the Shares of approximately $24.75 and $43.10; 52-week high closing price during the period ended March 1, 2017 (day prior to media speculation about a potential sale) of $40.49. Noted for informational purposes only.$24.75–$43.10
Wall Street research analyst price targetsLatest available low and high stock price targets for Company Common Stock as of March 13, 2017 ranged from $39.00 to $50.00 per Share. Noted for informational purposes only.$39.00–$50.00

Aggregate fee of approximately $17.4 million, all payable contingent upon consummation of the Transactions; plus expense reimbursement and indemnification. Centerview had not been engaged by the Company, Parent, Purchaser or Sponsor in the prior two years and received no compensation from them during that period.

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Management projections

Projection yearYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4CAGR
Revenue$1.3B$1.4B$1.5B$1.5B5.1%
Revenue growth5.2%5.1%5.1%5.0%
EBITDA$349M$375M$401M$428M7.0%
EBITDA growth7.7%7.4%6.9%6.7%
EBITDA margin27%27%28%28%
Implied EV / EBITDA7.0x6.5x6.1x5.7x

Year-1 growth is against LTM at announcement ($1.3B revenue, $324M EBITDA); later years are year over year.

Centerview relied on the "Forecasts" - internal financial forecasts, analyses and projections prepared by Air Methods management and furnished to Centerview, covering January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2021, including projected revenue, EBITDA, EBIT and unlevered cash flow. The DCF used fully-taxed unlevered free cash flows over 2017E-2021E plus a perpetuity-growth terminal value. Specific annual revenue/EBITDA figures were not included in the sections provided.

Process notes

Single financial advisor (Centerview Partners) to the Air Methods Board of Directors; no special committee disclosed. Centerview rendered oral opinion March 13, 2017, confirmed in writing March 14, 2017. Centerview performed no selected public companies analysis - only a selected transactions analysis and a DCF, with 52-week trading range and analyst price targets noted for informational purposes. Parent termination fee of $95,286,240 backed by a limited guarantee from equity investors. Media speculation about a potential sale occurred on/around March 2, 2017.

Other Medical Transportation fairness opinions

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